Expert judgments of probability and expectation play an important role in many systems, such as financial markets, medical diagnostics, and decision making. Experts however make errors of judgment due to bias, quantization effects, and finite information. One way to compensate for errors in judgment is to elicit estimates from multiple experts and to fuse the estimates to arrive at a composite judgment. In this talk I discuss the role of De Finetti's ideas of subjective probability, coherence, and information geometry to reconcile assessments that are inconsistent with the assumed structure of the space of events. The connection with the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing in Finance Theory is discussed.
Prof. Sanjoy Mitter is with the Department of EECS at MIT. He received his Ph.D. from Imperial College, London, in 1965 and taught at Case Western Reserve University from 1965 to 1969 before joining MIT in 1969. His research has been concerned with Systems, Control and Communication. He has served as the director for the Center for Intelligent Control and the Lab. for Information and Decision Systems. He received both the Richard E. Bellman Control Heritage Award from the American Automatic Control Council (2007) and the IEEE Control Systems Award (2000). He was elected a member of the National Academy of Engineering in 1988.